Chippa Survives, Maritzburg hang on, as I eat humble pie.

I was convinced, that the best Chippa United could do was to survive relegation through the play-offs.  Nothing, and no one, would have convinced me otherwise. 

But this afternoon, football proved me wrong, as Chippa United players hoisted their Chairman, Chippa Mpengesi on the air, celebrating their survival. 

Football proved me wrong just as it did when it comes to Maritzburg United. 

In my football world,  Maritzburg were as good as relegated, though their draw against Mamelodi Sundowns on Tuesday planted a seed of doubt in my mind on their imminent relegation. 

The rumors of the alleged unrest in the Marumo Gallants camp because of the CAF Confederations Cup bonuses the players felt they deserved for reaching the semi-finals left me with a dilemma, will they be able to fully apply themselves against a rampant Swallows to survive relegation? 

I got my answer when instead of a Maritzburg that was as good as dead to me, Marumo Gallants, that of a fairy tale run in Africa, got relegated, while Maritzburg will have another survival chance in the play-offs. 

None of what happened this afternoon was part of my script for this weekend's Dstv Premiership finale, absolutely none. 

As I sit here, munching on my humble pie, the taste of it makes me think of one Kgoloko Thobejane's famous words, "Football, can kill you a real death."

I am not dead, but my predictions are. 

Maritzburg United to be relegated, Chippa United for the play-offs.

                 Image: Twitter

With five matches to go in the Dstv Premiership, Swallows FC, Marumo Gallants, Chippa United, and Maritzburg United, are involved in a fierce relegation dogfight.

Looking at the statistics of the four relegation candidates, somehow took me back to the famous Animal Farm by George Orwell, and a quote from the book, which reads, "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

What does that particular quote have to do with the relegation battle and the four teams? One may ask.

Well, here is the answer, according to statistics from FootyStats, all four teams are relegation candidates, but some are more in danger than others!

While Swallows and Gallants are a little bit on the safe side, it doesn't rain, but pours for Chippa and Maritzburg.

Here is why....

Average goals scored per match:

When it comes to this metric, Chippa United have are better than the other three teams, they average 1.00 goals scored per match.

But as the other numbers will reveal later in the article, their goals conceded average puts them in danger, which is why they can not read much into this.

They are followed by Marumo Gallants, who average 0.88 goals scored per match.

Swallows are third with 0.80, while Maritzburg United are rock bottom with 0.76.

Rankings:

1) Chippa United = 1.00

2) Marumo Gallants = 0.88

3) Swallows FC = 0.80

4) Maritzburg United = 0.76

Average goals conceded per match:

Gallants concede less goals per match than the other three, their average is 1.08.

They are followed by Swallows, with 1.16.

Chippa are third with an average of 1.36, while Maritzburg, again, are last with a poor 1.40.

Rankings: 

1) Maritzburg United = 1.40

2) Chippa United = 1.36

3) Swallows FC = 1.16

4) Marumo Gallants = 1.08

Now it is beginning to get interesting!

Average xGF (expected goals for) per match:

When it comes to creating good goal scoring opportunities, it is Gallants who are ahead of the other three, they average an xGF of 1.31, which means they do create chances, with an average of 8.95 shots taken per game.

What has let them down is their inability to convert their opportunities/shots, into goals, with a conversion rate of 11%. This is something they are improving on though.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/lentjies-chippa-united-demotion-could.html?m=1

Following behind Marumo is Maritzburg United, their xGF is 1.24, which is okay, they take an average of 8.48 shots per game, again, which is okay, but the anti climax is their shot conversion rate, which is the poorest amongst the four relegation candidates, at 9%. They just can't find the back of the net, no goals, no wins!

Swallows are third with an xGF of 1.04, averaging 8.36 shots per match, and a conversion rate of 10%.

The worst side when it comes to this metric is Chippa United.

Their xGF is a poor 0.78, they average 6.79 shots taken per match, which is a red flag, but their shot conversion rate has been their saving grace, with 14%. Otherwise they would have been bottom of the log already.

Rankings:

1) Marumo Gallants = 1.31

2) Maritzburg United = 1.24

3) Swallows FC = 1.04

4) Chippa United = 0.78

Average xGA ( expected goals against):

When it comes to giving away good chances to opponents, Maritzburg United are the biggest culprits, with an average of 1.65.

This simple means the Team of Choice can't defend to save their lives, and it is not a surprise that they are bottom of the table, poor defending equals losing games, period.

Behind Maritburg is Chippa, with an xGA of 1.47, while Swallows are third with 1.35, and Marumo with 1.22.

Rankings:

1) Maritzburg United = 1.65

2) Chippa United = 1.47

3) Swallows FC = 1.35

4) Marumo Gallants = 1.22

What does the form guide say, who is winning?

According to how the four teams have performed in their last five matches, things look promising for Marumo.

Here is how they stand:

1) Marumo Gallants = WDDWD [9]

2) Swallows FC = WLLWD [7]

3) Maritzburg United = LLLWL [3]

4) Chippa United = LLDDL [2]

In a Nutshell:

Maritzburg's number scream relegation!

They have lost four of their last five matches, they can't defend, and they definitely can't score goals, despite creating good chances.

Chippa must prepare for the play-offs, thoroughly!! Marumo are coming for them at a Gautrain speed.

As for Swallows and Marumo, making plans for next season in the Dstv Premiership might be advisable, to avoid similar fate.

But as one wise coach-cum-philosopher, Steve Komphela once said, statistics are like a bikini, they do not reveal everything!

In that case, we may have to expect the unexpected.