Maritzburg United to be relegated, Chippa United for the play-offs.

                 Image: Twitter

With five matches to go in the Dstv Premiership, Swallows FC, Marumo Gallants, Chippa United, and Maritzburg United, are involved in a fierce relegation dogfight.

Looking at the statistics of the four relegation candidates, somehow took me back to the famous Animal Farm by George Orwell, and a quote from the book, which reads, "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

What does that particular quote have to do with the relegation battle and the four teams? One may ask.

Well, here is the answer, according to statistics from FootyStats, all four teams are relegation candidates, but some are more in danger than others!

While Swallows and Gallants are a little bit on the safe side, it doesn't rain, but pours for Chippa and Maritzburg.

Here is why....

Average goals scored per match:

When it comes to this metric, Chippa United have are better than the other three teams, they average 1.00 goals scored per match.

But as the other numbers will reveal later in the article, their goals conceded average puts them in danger, which is why they can not read much into this.

They are followed by Marumo Gallants, who average 0.88 goals scored per match.

Swallows are third with 0.80, while Maritzburg United are rock bottom with 0.76.

Rankings:

1) Chippa United = 1.00

2) Marumo Gallants = 0.88

3) Swallows FC = 0.80

4) Maritzburg United = 0.76

Average goals conceded per match:

Gallants concede less goals per match than the other three, their average is 1.08.

They are followed by Swallows, with 1.16.

Chippa are third with an average of 1.36, while Maritzburg, again, are last with a poor 1.40.

Rankings: 

1) Maritzburg United = 1.40

2) Chippa United = 1.36

3) Swallows FC = 1.16

4) Marumo Gallants = 1.08

Now it is beginning to get interesting!

Average xGF (expected goals for) per match:

When it comes to creating good goal scoring opportunities, it is Gallants who are ahead of the other three, they average an xGF of 1.31, which means they do create chances, with an average of 8.95 shots taken per game.

What has let them down is their inability to convert their opportunities/shots, into goals, with a conversion rate of 11%. This is something they are improving on though.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/lentjies-chippa-united-demotion-could.html?m=1

Following behind Marumo is Maritzburg United, their xGF is 1.24, which is okay, they take an average of 8.48 shots per game, again, which is okay, but the anti climax is their shot conversion rate, which is the poorest amongst the four relegation candidates, at 9%. They just can't find the back of the net, no goals, no wins!

Swallows are third with an xGF of 1.04, averaging 8.36 shots per match, and a conversion rate of 10%.

The worst side when it comes to this metric is Chippa United.

Their xGF is a poor 0.78, they average 6.79 shots taken per match, which is a red flag, but their shot conversion rate has been their saving grace, with 14%. Otherwise they would have been bottom of the log already.

Rankings:

1) Marumo Gallants = 1.31

2) Maritzburg United = 1.24

3) Swallows FC = 1.04

4) Chippa United = 0.78

Average xGA ( expected goals against):

When it comes to giving away good chances to opponents, Maritzburg United are the biggest culprits, with an average of 1.65.

This simple means the Team of Choice can't defend to save their lives, and it is not a surprise that they are bottom of the table, poor defending equals losing games, period.

Behind Maritburg is Chippa, with an xGA of 1.47, while Swallows are third with 1.35, and Marumo with 1.22.

Rankings:

1) Maritzburg United = 1.65

2) Chippa United = 1.47

3) Swallows FC = 1.35

4) Marumo Gallants = 1.22

What does the form guide say, who is winning?

According to how the four teams have performed in their last five matches, things look promising for Marumo.

Here is how they stand:

1) Marumo Gallants = WDDWD [9]

2) Swallows FC = WLLWD [7]

3) Maritzburg United = LLLWL [3]

4) Chippa United = LLDDL [2]

In a Nutshell:

Maritzburg's number scream relegation!

They have lost four of their last five matches, they can't defend, and they definitely can't score goals, despite creating good chances.

Chippa must prepare for the play-offs, thoroughly!! Marumo are coming for them at a Gautrain speed.

As for Swallows and Marumo, making plans for next season in the Dstv Premiership might be advisable, to avoid similar fate.

But as one wise coach-cum-philosopher, Steve Komphela once said, statistics are like a bikini, they do not reveal everything!

In that case, we may have to expect the unexpected.

Lentjies' Chippa United demotion could be a blessing in disguise.

Former Chippa United head coach, Kurt Lentjies, who has been demoted to the DDC side. Image: Twitter

Trigger happy Chippa United boss, Chippa Mpengesi, has struck again by demoting Kurt Lentjies to the Dstv Diski Challenge team.

Lentjies took charge of four matches in the Dstv Premiership, drawing two and losing two.

With the state the club is in, perhaps Lentjies should look at his redeployment as a blessing in disguise, Chippa are strong candidates for relegation, and he wouldn't want his name to be associated with relegating Mpengesi's pride and joy.

The former Mamelodi Sundowns player, who finished his playing career with the Chilli Boys, was on his second spell as a coach at Chippa United, having occupied the most unsafe seat in the league before Daine Klate took over.

He is the third coach to fall victim to Mpengesi's trigger happy happy tendencies this season, with Klate and Morgan Mammila on the same boat.

Long time assistant coach at the Chilli Boys, Siviwe Gwambi will take charge of the relegation threatened side until the end of the season.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/mammila-effect-working-at-swallows.html?m=1

"Chippa United Football Club would like to announce that Kurt Lentjies has been redeployed to head up our DSTV Diski Challenge Team," read the club statement.

"Siyabulela Gwambi has been appointed interim coach for remainder of the season.

"Gwambi has been a loyal servant of the club having acquired his CAF License A coaching credentials Club Chairman, Mr. Siviwe Mpengesi has called upon all Chilli Boys faithfuls to rally behind the Gqeberha born native and his charges as they look for positive results."

The Chilli Boys are 14th on the log table, with 26 points from 25 matches.

They next play Marumo Gallants away on the 12th of April, where a loss will see them drop deeper into the relegation zone.

After Gallants, they will have Kaizer Chiefs to deal with. 

Mammila effect working at Swallows?

Swallows FC Technical Advisor, Morgan Mammila, during his happy days at Chippa United. Image: Twitter

Swallows FC held league champions to a goalless draw on Sunday afternoon at Dobsonville Stadium.

The Sundowns draw follows a 1-0 win over AmaZulu FC in a game that was played on the 1st of April.

Before the AmaZulu win, and the Sundowns draw, Swallows had lost two games in a row, 4-1 against Orlando Pirates, and 1-0 against Lamontville Golden Arrows.

But here is the thing, both of the above losses came before former Chippa United coach, Morgan Mammila was announced as Swallows' Technical Advisor!

Mammila's best achievement as a coach so far, was becoming the first Chippa United coach to win four league games in a row in the Dstv Premiership after taking over the reigns from Daine Klate.

Although things went south after that, Mammila's record remains intact.

Mammila At Swallows....

When he joined the Birds, Mammila found them flirting with relegation.

They had just lost their head coach, Ernst Middendorp to a German club, with Musa Nyatama left at the helm, and had suffered two back-to-back losses.

Two matches after his arrival, Swallows have won one and drawn one, without a goal conceded.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/mokwena-is-impressed-his-players.html?m=1

Could it be the Mammila effect already at work?

Their next two league games will reveal the answer. Swallows will play against Stellenbosch FC on 22 April, and Maritzburg United on Freedom Day.

If Swallows can win both those matches, they will be celebrating freedom from the claws of relegation.

But most importantly, Mammila would have achieved another perfect four, well... Almost perfect four, having drawn against Sundowns. 

Mokwena is impressed his players, despite the two goalless draws.

Mamelodi Sundowns head coach, Rulani Mokwena. Image: Twitter

Mamelodi Sundowns drew 0-0 for the second time in a space of a week when they were held by Swallows FC at Dobsonville Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Sundowns had also played to a goalless draw against Cape Town City on Tuesday.

Before drawing against City, Sundowns had score in 21 matches in a row.

The two draws come after Downs were already crowned champions with seven games to spare.

Rulani Mokwena on the two draws: 
 
"Very proud of the efforts of the players, the spirit of the squad, the recovering of the players is so nice to see Nasir, Zungu, Gaston, after such a long time on the pitch, AB, Tapelo also," said Mokwena as quoted by iDiski Times.
https://www.idiskitimes.co.za/dstv-premiership/mokwena-denies-sundowns-have-foot-off-pedal-after-two-draws/

"So we have to play these games and try to make sure the squad is close to each other, so very proud of the players – gallant effort from the opposition."

On his team's performance against Swallows: 

"These games are very difficult, football you need a lot of conditions to have intensity, you have an opponent that’s an aggressor, and today we played against an opponent that is sitting and holding on to a point at home, you need a good pitch – so that the ball moves a little but and the pitch was dry and bumpy," Mokwena said.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/swallows-fc-and-cape-town-city-have.html?m=1

"So we were responsible for the tempo and I think we did all that we could, we had so many chances, final third entries, I think we won a lot of duels, and this game was about long balls and second balls.

"We won almost all the duels with aggression, so there will never be a game I will be in charge of at Sundowns where we have no aggression, believe me, no chance."

Swallows FC, and Cape Town City, have shown what is possible against Mamelodi Sundowns.

       Image credit: Lorenz Kohler

Swallows FC held Mamelodi Sundowns to a 0-0 draw in a Dstv Premiership encounter played on Sunday afternoon at Dobsonville Stadium, Soweto.

It was a huge point earned by Swallows in their bid to steer clear of the relegation zone.

The Birds followed in the footsteps of Cape Town City, who achieved the same result against the Brazilians on Tuesday night.

Before their goalless draw against City, Sundowns had scored a goal in each of their previous league fixtures.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/zwane-deserves-more-credit-than.html?m=1

The last time Downs failed to score was on 10 August 2022, when they were beaten 1-0 by TS Galaxy.

It is not only in the Dstv Premiership where Mamelodi Sundowns have been ruthless in front of goal, they have been going about the business of scoring goals in the Caf Champions League as well, including seven over two legs against Al Ahly SC.

That is why both Cape Town City and Swallows should be proud of stopping Downs from finding the back of the net.

Against Swallows, Sundowns, as was to be expected, enjoyed the lions' share of ball possession, 79% to be precise.

They also managed 23 attempts on goal, yet the Birds were able to keep Sundowns to three shots on target.

Now, it might be argued that both these goalless draws came after Downs had already been crowned league champions, and psychologically might have taken their foot off the pedal a little bit.

As true as that might be in a way, it must not be allowed to take away from the good work done by the Swallows and City.

Keeping a team like Sundowns at bay, whether they are at their best to not, takes a lot of planning, tactical discipline, and mental application from both the coaches and players. It is no small feat.

What Swallows, and Cape Town City have done, is to show what is possible against Sundowns. That, after all, they're not invincible.

Zwane deserves more credit than criticism.

Kaizer Chiefs head coach, Arthur Zwane. Image: Twitter. 

If there is a coach in the Dstv Premiership who deserves more credit than the criticism he is subject to, it is Kaizer Chiefs' Arthur Zwane.

Before you ask me what has he done to deserve any sort of praise, you only have to look at the team he inherited when he took over, and what he has been able to do with them.

The great Pep Guardiola, given billions of rands for a salary, and asked to win trophies with the current Chiefs squad, would laugh at your face, before saying no and walk away.

No disrespect to Amakhosi players, they are talented, but that is just about it, they have reached their ceiling, and can't produce more quality than what they are able to do now, period.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/we-wont-give-up-now-arthur-zwane.html?m=1

Despite that, Zwane, albeit the constant criticism, has managed to achieve some great positives with the team in terms of some performance indicators.

For example, according to FootyStats, Kaizer Chiefs is one of the best attacking sides in the league.

They are behind only Mamelodi Sundowns when it comes to creating valuable goalscoring opportunities in the league, with their average xGF (expected goals for) at 1.73, compared to Downs' 1.86.

If there is one thing Zwane can't do, it is to score goals for his players.

Just last night, Chiefs missed an avalanche of chances that could have won them the game, and on top of that, gave away a silly goal to draw 1-1 against Marumo Gallants.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is not a coaching problem, but speaks to the quality and abilities of the players.

Zwane has done well to implement a tactical approach that is suitable for the players at his disposal, playing on the transition to maximize the strengths of players like Ashley Du Preez, Dillon Solomons, and other speedy players at Amakhosi.

That alone, is a sign of a coach who knows what he is doing.

To cut a long rant short, Zwane deserves more credit than he is given for his efforts.

After all, you can't take a go-kart to a Formula One race and expect a miracle. 

We won't give up now - Arthur Zwane.

Kaizer Chiefs coach, Arthur Zwane. Image: Kaizer Chiefs Twitter

After their 1-1 draw against Marumo Gallants on Saturday at FNB Stadium, Kaizer Chiefs coach, Arthur Zwane accepted the setback, but reiterated the fact that they won't give up on their goal to finish second on the log.

In a game that Amakhosi could have won comfortably, they decided to revert back to their default settings.

They squandered good scoring opportunities, and gave Gallants a goal for an Easter present, courtesy of Edmilson Dove and Brandon Peterson.

Saturday night's draw might not be a complete train smash, but it came at a wrong time.

With Amakhosi on a four match winning streak, they would have loved to have made it five, especially taking into consideration the difficulty of their upcoming matches.

Chiefs still has to play SuperSport United, Cape Town City, and Sekhukhune United, three encounters that might prove difficult to win.

Zwane's thoughts on the game:

"I think the game became too easy for us when the we got the first goal," Zwane said after the game, as quoted by Times Live. https://www.timeslive.co.za/sport/soccer/2023-04-09-we-keep-beating-ourselves-zwane-after-chiefs-costly-draw-against-gallants/

"After scoring we created three scoring chances but we did not take them again. Then we became sloppy at the back in terms of the build-up play.

"I was telling them we needed to move the ball a lot quicker because the more we put them under pressure the more likely we were to score.

"The miscommunication between Brandon and Dove gave them a goal they didn't deserve. They had two other chances and that was it. We had a number of chances to win this game."

On looking ahead, and why he won't give up:

"But having said that, we keep beating ourselves. We keep dropping points and letting ourselves down. For me this is one game where we could have got maximum points."

"There's five more games to play and anything can happen. There are a lot of teams fighting relegation and those who want to be in the top eight and there are no easy games for anyone. 

"We could have grabbed maximum points on this one and it's one of those. We just have to go back and prepare ourselves for the next one, which is going to be after the cup [Nedbank Cup quarterfinal against Royal AM in Durban on Sunday] game.

Also Read: https://safootballtxt.blogspot.com/2023/04/i-am-proud-to-have-watched-south.html?m=1

"We won't give up now. This is football and sometimes you find yourself in this situation. We always put ourselves in this situation where we could have made it much better for ourselves. 

"It's all up to us and we still have to play SuperSport. It will test our character from now ."